Calculating confidence intervals for impact numbers

BACKGROUND: Standard effect measures such as risk difference and attributable risk are frequently used in epidemiological studies and public health research to describe the effect of exposures. Recently, so-called impact numbers have been proposed, which express the population impact of exposures in form of specific person or case numbers. To describe estimation uncertainty, it is necessary to calculate confidence intervals for these new effect measures. In this paper, we present methods to calculate confidence intervals for the new impact numbers in the situation of cohort studies. METHODS: Beside the exposure impact number (EIN), which is equivalent to the well-known number needed to treat (NNT), two other impact numbers are considered: the case impact number (CIN) and the exposed cases impact number (ECIN), which describe the number of cases (CIN) and the number of exposed cases (ECIN) with an outcome among whom one case is attributable to the exposure. The CIN and ECIN represent reciprocals of the population attributable risk (PAR) and the attributable fraction among the exposed (AF(e)), respectively. Thus, confidence intervals for these impact numbers can be calculated by inverting and exchanging the confidence limits of the PAR and AF(e). EXAMPLES: We considered a British and a Japanese cohort study that investigated the association between smoking and death from coronary heart disease (CHD) and between smoking and stroke, respectively. We used the reported death and disease rates and calculated impact numbers with corresponding 95% confidence intervals. In the British study, the CIN was 6.46, i.e. on average, of any 6 to 7 persons who died of CHD, one case was attributable to smoking with corresponding 95% confidence interval of [3.84, 20.36]. For the exposed cases, the results of ECIN = 2.64 with 95% confidence interval [1.76, 5.29] were obtained. In the Japanese study, the CIN was 6.67, i.e. on average, of the 6 to 7 persons who had a stroke, one case was attributable to smoking with corresponding 95% confidence interval of [3.80, 27.27]. For the exposed cases, the results of ECIN = 4.89 with 95% confidence interval of [2.86, 16.67] were obtained. CONCLUSION: The consideration of impact numbers in epidemiological analyses provides additional information and helps the interpretation of study results, e.g. in public health research. In practical applications, it is necessary to describe estimation uncertainty. We have shown that the calculation of confidence intervals for the new impact numbers is possible by means of known methods for attributable risk measures. Therefore, estimated impact numbers should always be complemented by appropriate confidence intervals

Research data supporting "A fragment profiling approach to inhibitors of the orphan M. tuberculosis P450 CYP144A1"

Fragment-based approaches to targeting CYP144 from Mycobacterium tuberculosi

Digital PCR methods improve detection sensitivity and measurement precision of low abundance mtDNA deletions

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) mutations are a common cause of primary mitochondrial disorders, and have also been implicated in a broad collection of conditions, including aging, neurodegeneration, and cancer. Prevalent among these pathogenic variants are mtDNA deletions, which show a strong bias for the loss of sequence in the major arc between, but not including, the heavy and light strand origins of replication. Because individual mtDNA deletions can accumulate focally, occur with multiple mixed breakpoints, and in the presence of normal mtDNA sequences, methods that detect broad-spectrum mutations with enhanced sensitivity and limited costs have both research and clinical applications. In this study, we evaluated semi-quantitative and digital PCR-based methods of mtDNA deletion detection using double-stranded reference templates or biological samples. Our aim was to describe key experimental assay parameters that will enable the analysis of low levels or small differences in mtDNA deletion load during disease progression, with limited false-positive detection. We determined that the digital PCR method significantly improved mtDNA deletion detection sensitivity through absolute quantitation, improved precision and reduced assay standard error

TOM40 Mediates Mitochondrial Dysfunction Induced by α-Synuclein Accumulation in Parkinson's Disease.

Alpha-synuclein (α-Syn) accumulation/aggregation and mitochondrial dysfunction play prominent roles in the pathology of Parkinson's disease. We have previously shown that postmortem human dopaminergic neurons from PD brains accumulate high levels of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) deletions. We now addressed the question, whether alterations in a component of the mitochondrial import machinery -TOM40- might contribute to the mitochondrial dysfunction and damage in PD. For this purpose, we studied levels of TOM40, mtDNA deletions, oxidative damage, energy production, and complexes of the respiratory chain in brain homogenates as well as in single neurons, using laser-capture-microdissection in transgenic mice overexpressing human wildtype α-Syn. Additionally, we used lentivirus-mediated stereotactic delivery of a component of this import machinery into mouse brain as a novel therapeutic strategy. We report here that TOM40 is significantly reduced in the brain of PD patients and in α-Syn transgenic mice. TOM40 deficits were associated with increased mtDNA deletions and oxidative DNA damage, and with decreased energy production and altered levels of complex I proteins in α-Syn transgenic mice. Lentiviral-mediated overexpression of Tom40 in α-Syn-transgenic mice brains ameliorated energy deficits as well as oxidative burden. Our results suggest that alterations in the mitochondrial protein transport machinery might contribute to mitochondrial impairment in α-Synucleinopathies

Statistical Multiplicity in Systematic Reviews of Anaesthesia Interventions: A Quantification and Comparison between Cochrane and Non-Cochrane Reviews

BACKGROUND: Systematic reviews with meta-analyses often contain many statistical tests. This multiplicity may increase the risk of type I error. Few attempts have been made to address the problem of statistical multiplicity in systematic reviews. Before the implications are properly considered, the size of the issue deserves clarification. Because of the emphasis on bias evaluation and because of the editorial processes involved, Cochrane reviews may contain more multiplicity than their non-Cochrane counterparts. This study measured the quantity of statistical multiplicity present in a population of systematic reviews and aimed to assess whether this quantity is different in Cochrane and non-Cochrane reviews. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We selected all the systematic reviews published by the Cochrane Anaesthesia Review Group containing a meta-analysis and matched them with comparable non-Cochrane reviews. We counted the number of statistical tests done in each systematic review. The median number of tests overall was 10 (interquartile range (IQR) 6 to 18). The median was 12 in Cochrane and 8 in non-Cochrane reviews (difference in medians 4 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.0-19.0). The proportion that used an assessment of risk of bias as a reason for doing extra analyses was 42% in Cochrane and 28% in non-Cochrane reviews (difference in proportions 14% (95% CI -8 to 36). The issue of multiplicity was addressed in 6% of all the reviews. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Statistical multiplicity in systematic reviews requires attention. We found more multiplicity in Cochrane reviews than in non-Cochrane reviews. Many of the reasons for the increase in multiplicity may well represent improved methodological approaches and greater transparency, but multiplicity may also cause an increased risk of spurious conclusions. Few systematic reviews, whether Cochrane or non-Cochrane, address the issue of multiplicity

What are the living conditions and health status of those who don't report their migration status? a population-based study in Chile

BACKGROUND: Undocumented immigrants are likely to be missing from population databases, making it impossible to identify an accurate sampling frame in migration research. No population-based data has been collected in Chile regarding the living conditions and health status of undocumented immigrants. However, the CASEN survey (Caracterizacion Socio- Economica Nacional) asked about migration status in Chile for the first time in 2006 and provides an opportunity to set the base for future analysis of available migration data. We explored the living conditions and health of self-reported immigrants and respondents who preferred not to report their migration status in this survey. METHODS: Cross-sectional secondary analysis of CASEN survey in Chile in 2006. Outcomes: any disability, illness/accident, hospitalization/surgery, cancer/chronic condition (all binary variables); and the number of medical/emergency attentions received (count variables). Covariates: Demographics (age, sex, marital status, urban/rural, ethnicity), socioeconomic status (education level, employment status and household income), and material standard of living (overcrowding, sanitation, housing quality). Weighted regression models were estimated for each health outcome, crude and adjusted by sets of covariates, in STATA 10.0. RESULTS: About 1% of the total sample reported being immigrants and 0.7% preferred not to report their migration status (Migration Status - Missing Values; MS-MV). The MS-MV lived in more deprived conditions and reported a higher rate of health problems than immigrants. Some gender differences were observed by health status among immigrants and the MS-MV but they were not statistically significant. Regressions indicated that age, sex, SES and material factors consistently affected MS-MVs’ chance of presenting poor health and these patterns were different to those found among immigrants. Great heterogeneity in both the MS-MV and the immigrants, as indicated by wide confidence intervals, prevented the identification of other significantly associated covariates. CONCLUSION: This is the first study to look at the living conditions and health of those that preferred not to respond their migration status in Chile. Respondents that do not report their migration status are vulnerable to poor health and may represent undocumented immigrants. Surveys that fail to identify these people are likely to misrepresent the experiences of immigrants and further quantitative and qualitative research is urgently required

Progress in Understanding and Treating SCN2A-Mediated Disorders

Advances in gene discovery for neurodevelopmental disorders have identified SCN2A dysfunction as a leading cause of infantile seizures, autism spectrum disorder, and intellectual disability. SCN2A encodes the neuronal sodium channel NaV1.2. Functional assays demonstrate strong correlation between genotype and phenotype. This insight can help guide therapeutic decisions and raises the possibility that ligands that selectively enhance or diminish channel function may improve symptoms. The well-defined function of sodium channels makes SCN2A an important test case for investigating the neurobiology of neurodevelopmental disorders more generally. Here, we discuss the progress made, through the concerted efforts of a diverse group of academic and industry scientists as well as policy advocates, in understanding and treating SCN2A-related disorders

Dynamics of generalized PT-symmetric dimers with time-periodic gain–loss

A parity-time (PT)-symmetric system with periodically varying-in-time gain and loss modeled by two coupled Schrödinger equations (dimer) is studied. It is shown that the problem can be reduced to a perturbed pendulum-like equation. This is done by finding two constants of motion. Firstly, a generalized problem using Melnikov-type analysis and topological degree arguments is studied for showing the existence of periodic (libration), shift- periodic (rotation), and chaotic solutions. Then these general results are applied to the PT-symmetric dimer. It is interestingly shown that if a sufficient condition is satisfied, then rotation modes, which do not exist in the dimer with constant gain–loss, will persist. An approximate threshold for PT-broken phase corresponding to the disappearance of bounded solutions is also presented. Numerical study is presented accompanying the analytical results